The National Institute of Justice (NIJ) provided their annual review and revalidation of the Prisoner Assessment Tool Targeting Estimated Risk and Needs (PATTERN). PATTERN is used by the Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) to measure general recidivism, chances of a person returning to prison again, and propensity for violence after leaving prison. Whereas many overall statistics tell a story that once someone goes to prison that they will likely return, the PATTERN score is proving to be an accurate measurement of a person’s chance of staying on the right side of the law after serving a prison term. However, the stats also tell a story of where prison programming should be focused.
When Congress passed the First Step Act, they wanted a way to reduce the prison population but they wanted to do so in a measured way that also provided needed programming to help improve the the chances that the person would not return to prison. Positive Programming on Anger Management, Drug Addiction and Criminal Thinking are just a few of the classes the BOP has to arm those in prison with better outcomes when they return to the community. The incentive Congress provided was that the BOP had the authority to reduce the prison term by up to a year for successful completion of these programs and for participating in productive activities, such as work details.
Congress did not provide the incentives across the board to all prisoners though. Only those whose crimes were generally seen as being non violent. Sixty-two crimes, including things like sex offenses, certain gun charges and terrorism, are all that made the list of exclusions. Further, only those with a minimum or low PATTERN score could apply credits for a reduced sentence and toward more home confinement. The primary beneficiaries of the First Step Act became those who were also minimum security prisoners, ‘campers,’ who had no history of violence nor a violent crime.
NIJ’s study confirmed that those with minimum PATTERN scores had a recidivism rate after 3 years of leaving prison of 9.2% for men and 7.4% for women. According to the Government Accountability Office (GAO) the overall recidivism average for all prisoners released from BOP is 45%. Men with high PATTERN scores had a recidivism rate of 77.5% according to GAO. That data shows one of the complicated issues about the First Step Act ... those who really need to program to turn their lives around have no incentive to participate in needed programming.
The BOP is simply doing what Congress told it to do. However, those who work in corrections are well aware of who needs programming and it is not those in minimum security prison camps. While everyone in prison needs a productive activity to reflect on while there, some need more than others. Right now, the BOP is primarily catering to a population of select offenders who, without any programming, would probably fair better at avoiding prison than say a person at a high level security prison such as a U.S. Penitentiary. However, even men who had low PATTERN scores, were 3-times more likely to go back to prison within three years of leaving than those who had a minimum PATTERN.
I had just written about the high costs of minimum security prisoners that are costing tax payers more than housing high security prisoners. The First Step Act is forcing the BOP to spend hundreds of millions of dollars in programming on those prisoners who are less likely to return to prison anyway. Make no mistake, PATTERN is proving to be a good measure of future success or failure after prison. However, most prisoners in the federal system are going to return to society at some point, dollars may be better spent on a population that needs the programming.
In the BOP, prisoners do not have to take any programming or classes to improve their behavior other than taking classes for passing the General Education Development (GED) high school equivalency. Everything else is up to the prisoner to improve their lives and many who need help just are not doing things they could. In some cases, incentives could help but Congress only gave the incentive to a select group who are primarily minimum security and minimum PATTERN.
NIJ concluded, “The ... study finds that PATTERN remains a strong and valid predictor of general and violent recidivism.” When we can predict who will return to prison and who will not, then tools like PATTERN should be used to also allocate resources to groups of prisoners that need help the most. After all, those released from prison, as Director Colette Peters has stated, will one day be our neighbors. More needs to be done to focus on those who need to become better neighbors.
Perhaps Congress can address the inequity in incentives for those who need the programming more, but the BOP could also do a better job of moving those out of prison who meet the requirements for First Step Act.
